← Fred Memar Free tools · Launch

Launch & growth

What a launch really costs

A new listing doesn't earn anything until it has stock, reviews and a ranking, and you pay for all three before the first real month of profit. This adds them up so you know the number before you place the order. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter leaves this page.

The product

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what the customer pays per unit
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profit ÷ price, after product cost and fees

The goal

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what the listing should earn once it's established
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enough to compete with the listings around you

Assumptions ?

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landed cost of one unit
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first order, measured in goal-pace sales
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share of launch buyers who leave a review
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what each launch unit costs you in coupons or giveaway
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ad spend to climb, as months of your target revenue
Launch budget ? — —
Inventory ? — —
Early reviews ? — —
Ranking push ? — —

    Where the budget goes

    biggest first

      Launch budget—

      Compare scenarios

      change one thing, keep everything else

      • Inventory
      • Early reviews
      • Ranking push

      By price

      PriceInventoryReviewsRankingBudgetPayback

      Your current value is in red. Payback = budget ÷ monthly profit goal, in months at goal pace.

      What each number means

      Tap any in the calculator to jump to its explanation here.

      What you enter

      Sale price

      What the customer pays for one unit. Price sets everything else here: what a launch unit costs, how many units you need, and what stock costs.

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      Profit margin

      The share of the price you keep after product cost, marketplace fees, fulfillment and ads. A $20 item that leaves you $6 is a 30% margin.

      Not sure? The return cost calculator works out profit per order.

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      Monthly profit goal

      What the listing should make each month once it's ranked and selling steadily. The calculator works backward from it: goal ÷ (price × margin) is the number of units you need to sell each month.

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      Reviews before you scale

      How many reviews the listing needs before shoppers pick it over the listings around it. Look at the first page for your main keyword: if the sellers there have 300–1,000 reviews, 20 won't hold up.

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      Presets

      Moderate is the model I've used: product cost at 30% of price, two months of stock, 40% of launch buyers reviewing, launch units counted at full price, and one month of target revenue for the ranking push.

      Aggressive is a lean budget that assumes the launch goes well. Defensive plans for slow reviews, a longer climb and more stock. Change any assumption and it becomes Custom; your custom numbers are remembered in this browser.

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      Product cost (% of price)

      What one unit costs to make and land in stock (product, packaging, freight, duty) as a share of the sale price. 25–35% is common for private label on Amazon.

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      Months of stock

      How much your first order covers, counted in months of goal-pace sales. Running out while the listing is climbing costs you the rank you paid for, so most launches order at least two months.

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      Review rate on launch units

      Of the units you move through launch programs, how many come back as reviews. 40% means 2.5 launch units per review. Amazon Vine usually does better; ordinary discounted sales do much worse, often in the low single digits.

      Stay inside marketplace rules: Vine and Early-Reviewer-style programs are allowed; paying for or requiring reviews is not.

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      Launch discount

      What each launch unit costs you beyond the product itself: the coupon, deep discount or free unit, as a share of the price. 100% counts each one as a full-price giveaway, which is the cautious way to budget it. The product cost of these units is already in inventory.

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      Ranking push

      Ad spend and promotions to move the listing up to where it sells at goal pace, measured in months of your target revenue (goal ÷ margin). One month is a reasonable starting point; crowded categories take longer.

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      What you get

      Launch budget

      Inventory plus early reviews plus the ranking push: the cash to have on hand before the listing earns its goal. Below it you'll see how many months of goal profit it takes to earn it back.

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      Inventory

      Product cost for your first order: the months of stock you chose at goal pace, plus the launch units used for reviews.

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      Early reviews

      Launch units needed (reviews ÷ review rate) × price × launch discount. This is usually the biggest piece, and the one most launches underestimate.

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      Ranking push

      Your target monthly revenue × the months of ranking push. It grows with your goal: a bigger goal means a higher rank to reach, and a higher rank costs more to get to.

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